WP 2016_03 Old-Age Provision: Past, Present, Future

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Published in 2016 in European Actuarial Journal, Volume 6, Issue 2.

ABSTRACT: This is a summary of the main topics and findings from the Swiss Risk and Insurance Forum 2015. That event gathered experts from academia, insurance industry, regulatory bodies, and consulting companies to discuss the past and current developments and… more »

WP 2015-13 The Methodologies of Behavioral Insurance: Introduction to the Special Issue

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Published in 2016 in The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Volume 83, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: The generic insurance product involves an agent giving up a certain amount of money ex ante some risky event in the expectation of being given some money in the future if something unfortunate occurs. It is immediate… more »

WP 2015-10 Evaluating the Expected Welfare Gain from Insurance

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Published in 2016 in The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Volume 83, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: Economic theory tells us how to evaluate the expected welfare gain from insurance products on offer to individuals. If we know the risk preferences of the individual, and subjective beliefs about loss contingencies and likelihood of payout,… more »

WP 2015-05 Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations: Experimental Evidence

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Published in 2017 in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Volume 52, Issue 2.

ABSTRACT: We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes’ rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally… more »

WP 2014-09 Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

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Published in 2015 in Economic Letters, Volume 127.

ABSTRACT: We consider the elicitation of subjective belief distributions over continuous events using scoring rules with incentives. The theoretical literature suggests that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We use this theoretical prediction to test… more »

WP 2014-08 First evidence of comorbidty of problem gambling and other psychiatric problems in a representative urban sample of South Africa

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Published in 2015 in Journal of Gambling Studies, Volume 31.

ABSTRACT: Aims: We investigate the extent to which problem gambling in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is comorbid with depression, anxiety and substance abuse. Setting: Data are from the 2010… more »

WP 2014-07 Risk and Time Preferences of Entrepreneurs: Evidence from a Danish Field Experiment

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Published in 2014 in Theory & Decision, Volume 77, Issue 3.

ABSTRACT: To understand how small business entrepreneurs respond to government policy one has to know their risk and time preferences. Are they risk averse, or have high discount rates, such that they are hard to motivate? We have conducted a set… more »

WP 2013-13 Cautionary notes on the use of field experiments to address policy issues

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Published in 2014 in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 30, Issue 4.

ABSTRACT: Field experiments are popular again in policy circles. There are various types of field experiments, with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different policy questions. There is also a lot of needless hype about what field experiments can do.… more »

WP 2013-10 Impact Evaluation and Welfare Evaluation

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Published in 2014 in The European Journal of Development Research, Volume 26, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: The expression “impact evaluation” means different things to different people, but to most economists now it means the use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or “quasi-experiments.” I want to focus on that side of the research and… more »

WP 2013-08 Subjective Beliefs and Statistical Forecasts of Financial Risks: The Chief Risk Officer Project

Posted On August 15, 2013
Categories Working Papers, WP 2013 Tags

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Published in 2014 as a book chapter in Contemporary Challenges in Risk Management: published by Palgrave Macmillan UK, and edited by Torben Juul Andersen & Stanley Mayes.

ABSTRACT: Information about financial risks comes from many sources. We formally consider how one can elicit and use information from two important sources when… more »