WP 2020-20 Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street

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Forthcoming, Methods

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider, J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow… more »