WP 2012-08 Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

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Published in 2015 in Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, Volume 50.

AUTHORS: Constantinos Antoniou, Glenn W. Harrison, Morten I. Lau, and Daniel Read

ABSTRACT. A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes Rule correctly when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We… more »

WP 2011-05 Avoiding the Curves: Direct Elicitation of Time Preferences

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Published in 2012 in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Volume 44, Issue 3.

AUTHORS: Susan K. Laury, Melayne Morgan McInnes, and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT. We propose and test a new method for eliciting curvature-controlled discount rates that are invariant to the form of the utility function. The advantage of this method… more »

WP 2010-06 Estimating Subjective Probabilities

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Published in 2014 in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Volume 48, Issue 3.

AUTHORS: Steffen Andersen, John Fountain, Glenn W. Harrison, and E. Elisabet Rutström

ABSTRACT. Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to… more »