WP 2020-20 Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street

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Forthcoming, Methods

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider, J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow… more »

WP 2020-16 Experimental Design and Bayesian Interpretation

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Prepared for H. Kincaid and D. Ross (eds.), Modern Guide to the Philosophy of Economics (Cheltenham, UK: Elgar, forthcoming 2021).

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison

ABSTRACT: If we take seriously the intent to improve welfare for individuals with experimental interventions, then we must allow that we are also capable of doing… more »

WP 2016-05 Cumulative Prospect Theory in the Laboratory: A Reconsideration

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Forthcoming in G.W. Harrison and D. Ross (eds.), Models of Risk Preferences: Descriptive and Normative Challenges (Bingley, UK: Emerald, Research in Experimental Economics, 2021).

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: We take Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) seriously by rigorously estimating structural models using the full set of CPT… more »