WP 2020

WP 2020-11 Belief Distributions, Bayes Rule and Bayesian Overconfidence

Posted On July 21, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: We provide evidence that individuals generally behave consistently with Bayes Rule defined over continuous events in the sense that they report subjective belief distributions that are unbiased, but that they behave inconsistently in the sense that they exhibit significant overconfidence compared… more »

WP 2020-09 Constant Discounting, Temporal Instability and Dynamic Inconsistency in Denmark: A Longitudinal Field Experiment

Posted On July 9, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Morten I. Lau and Hong Il Yoo

ABSTRACT: Claims that individuals have dynamically inconsistent preferences are usually made by studying individual discount rates over different time delays, but where those discount rates are elicited at a single point in time. However, to test dynamic inconsistency one… more »

WP 2020-07 Literacy and the Quality of Index Insurance Decisions

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Published in 2021 in Geneva Risk & Insurance Review.

AUTHORS: Glenn Harrison, Karlijn Morsink and Mark Schneider

ABSTRACT: There is widespread concern in developing countries with the expansion of formal insurance products to help manage significant risks. These concerns arise primarily from a lack of understanding of insurance products, general… more »

WP 2020-06 Risk Perceptions in the Virtual Wilderness: An Application to Wild Fires

Posted On February 26, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Jared M. Johnson and E. Elisabet Rutström

ABSTRACT: In economic decision making most subjective probabilities are formed in a compound manner, through the interaction of multiple attributes of events, each of which have likelihoods that are unknown to various degrees. We consider how subjectively formed risk… more »

WP 2020-03 Addiction is socially engineered exploitation of natural biological vulnerability

Posted On January 21, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Don Ross

ABSTRACT: Interdisciplinary study of addiction is facilitated by relative unification of the concept. What should be sought is not formal unification through literal analytic definition, which would undermine practical flexibility within disciplines and intervention practices. However, leading controversies around whether addiction should be conceived as a ‘disease’,… more »