WP 2020

WP 2020-22 Subjective Beliefs and Economic Preferences During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions… more »

WP 2020-21 A Case Study of an Experiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Online Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs and Economic Preferences

Posted On December 14, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: We convey our experiences developing and implementing an online experiment to elicit subjective beliefs and economic preferences. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated closures of our laboratories required us to conduct an online… more »

WP 2020-20 Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street

Download Paper

Forthcoming, Methods

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider, J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow… more »

WP 2020-19 Strategic Theory of Norms for Empirical Applications in Political Science and Political Economy

Posted On November 3, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Don Ross, Wynn C. Stirling, and Luca Tummolini

ABSTRACT: The study of social norms sprawls across all of the social sciences. Consequently, the concept lacks a unified conception, let alone a generally acknowledged formal theory. We aim to synthesize an account that can be applied generally, at the social… more »

WP 2020-18 Random Preference Models of Unidimensional and Multidimensional Risk Attitudes

Posted On October 20, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Morten I. Lau & Hong Il Yoo

ABSTRACT: Apesteguia and Ballester [2018] introduce the class of Ω-ordered lottery pairs that nests popular experimental designs such as multiple price lists. For this class, they show that the Random Preference (RP) model with Expected Utility Theory (EUT) generates choice probabilities which… more »

WP 2020-16 Experimental Design and Bayesian Interpretation

Download Paper

Prepared for H. Kincaid and D. Ross (eds.), Modern Guide to the Philosophy of Economics (Cheltenham, UK: Elgar, forthcoming 2021).

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison

ABSTRACT: If we take seriously the intent to improve welfare for individuals with experimental interventions, then we must allow that we are also capable of doing… more »

WP 2020-15 Estimating Risk Preferences for Individuals: A Bayesian Approach

Posted On September 24, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Xiaoxue Sherry Gao, Glenn W. Harrison and Rusty Tchernis

ABSTRACT: Risk preferences play a central role in many descriptive and normative inferences about economic behavior. It is natural to expect that risk preference are heterogeneous. We evaluate a series of Bayesian econometric models that allow for different levels of… more »

WP 2020-14 Behavioral Welfare Economics and Risk Preferences: A Bayesian Approach

Posted On August 6, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

Download Paper

AUTHORS: Xiaoxue Sherry Gao, Glenn W. Harrison and Rusty Tchernis

ABSTRACT: We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences… more »