Working Papers

WP 2020-20 Eliciting Beliefs about COVID-19 Prevalence and Mortality: Epidemiological Models Compared with The Street

Posted On November 20, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Brian Monroe, Don Ross, Mark Schneider and J. Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: Subjective belief elicitation about uncertain events has a long lineage in the economics and statistics literatures. Recent developments in the experimental elicitation and statistical estimation of subjective belief distributions allow inferences… more »

WP 2020-19 Strategic Theory of Norms for Empirical Applications in Political Science and Political Economy

Posted On November 3, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Don Ross, Wynn C. Stirling, and Luca Tummolini

ABSTRACT: We adapt Bicchieri’s (2006, 2017) account of norms as aligned descriptive and normative expectations for application to identification and estimation of laboratory choice data. This involves a number of steps. First, borrowing from Kuran (1995), we amend the form of… more »

WP 2020-18 Random Preference Models of Unidimensional and Multidimensional Risk Attitudes

Posted On October 20, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Morten I. Lau & Hong Il Yoo

ABSTRACT: Apesteguia and Ballester [2018] introduce the class of Ω-ordered lottery pairs that nests popular experimental designs such as multiple price lists. For this class, they show that the Random Preference (RP) model with Expected Utility Theory (EUT) generates choice probabilities which… more »

WP 2020-17 Should I Stay or Should I Go? Equilibrium Selection in a Transportation Network

Posted On October 15, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Enrica Carbone, Vinayak V. Dixit, and E. Elisabet Rutström

ABSTRACT: When imposing congestion pricing in a transportation network, especially around downtown commercial centers, there is a concern that commercial activities will have to consider relocating. Such relocations can be both risky and costly. We… more »

WP 2020-16 Experimental Design and Bayesian Interpretation

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Prepared for H. Kincaid and D. Ross (eds.), Modern Guide to the Philosophy of Economics (Cheltenham, UK: Elgar, forthcoming 2021).

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison

ABSTRACT: If we take seriously the intent to improve welfare for individuals with experimental interventions, then we must allow that we are also capable of doing… more »

WP 2020-15 Estimating Risk Preferences for Individuals: A Bayesian Approach

Posted On September 24, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Xiaoxue Sherry Gao, Glenn W. Harrison and Rusty Tchernis

ABSTRACT: Risk preferences play a central role in many descriptive and normative inferences about economic behavior. It is natural to expect that risk preference are heterogeneous. We evaluate a series of Bayesian econometric models that allow for different levels of… more »

WP 2020-14 Behavioral Welfare Economics and Risk Preferences: A Bayesian Approach

Posted On August 6, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Xiaoxue Sherry Gao, Glenn W. Harrison and Rusty Tchernis

ABSTRACT: We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences… more »

WP 2020-12 Do No Harm? The Welfare Consequences of Behavioural Interventions

Posted On July 21, 2020
Categories Working Papers, WP 2020

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AUTHORS: Glenn Harrison, Karlijn Morsink, and Mark Schneider

ABSTRACT: The rapid expansion of access to finance, low levels of financial literacy, and increasing complexity of financial products, raises serious concerns about the extent to which consumers are able to make financial decisions that increase consumer welfare. We evaluate the consumer… more »