Working Papers

WP 2023-03 Mindshaping, Conditional Games, and the Harsanyi Doctrine

Posted On February 6, 2023
Categories Working Papers, WP 2023

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ABSTRACT: Much of the game theory literature concerns mechanisms by which players can infer information about the utilities, beliefs, and strategies of other players based on actions within games and pre-play signals. When game theory is applied to strategic interactions among people, such analysis interprets them as trying to “mindread”.… more »

WP 2023-02 Behavioral Welfare Economics and the Quantitative Intentional Stance

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Forthcoming in G.W. Harrison and D. Ross (eds.), Models of Risk Preferences: Descriptive and Normative Challenges, (Bingley, UK: Emerald, Research in Experimental Economics, 2023).

ABSTRACT: Behavioral economics poses a challenge for the welfare evaluation of choices, particularly those that involve risk. It demands that we recognize that the descriptive account… more »

WP 2023-01 Deductibles and Health Care Utilization: An Experiment on the Role of Forward-Looking Behavior

Posted On January 5, 2023
Categories Working Papers, WP 2023

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Nadja Kairies-Schwarz, and Johann Han

ABSTRACT: We investigate the effects of nonlinear deductible contracts on health utilization behavior by using a laboratory experiment in which we can control the likelihood of hitting the deductible. We also evaluate the effect of subjects receiving regular information updates on… more »

WP 2022-04 Father of the Bride, or Steel Magnolias? Targeting men, women or both to reduce child marriage.

Posted On November 28, 2022
Categories Working Papers, WP 2022

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AUTHORS: Rachel Cassidy, Anaya Dam, Wendy Janssens, Umair Kiani, and Karlijn Morsink

ABSTRACT: Interventions that aim to change outcomes for women and children typically target women. Yet in contexts where men are the dominant decision-makers, male references and beliefs may remain the binding constraint. We ask – when we target… more »

WP 2022-03 Recovering Subjective Probability Distributions: A Bayesian Approach

Posted On September 15, 2022
Categories Working Papers, WP 2022

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AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison, Brian Monroe, and Eric R. Ulm

ABSTRACT: An individual reports subjective beliefs over continuous events using a proper scoring rule, such as the Quadratic Scoring Rule. Under mild additional assumption, it is known that these reports reflect latent subjective beliefs if the individual is risk neutral.… more »

WP 2022-02 The Welfare Consequences of Processing Compound Risk

Posted On September 13, 2022
Categories Working Papers, WP 2022

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AUTHORS: Glenn Harrison, Jimmy Martínez-Correa, Karlijn Morsink, Jia Min Ng, and Todd Swarthout

ABSTRACT: For consumers to make efficient financial decisions, the mapping of beliefs about probabilities of states of the world with potential outcomes is an important cognitive process. Many financial decisions, as a part of this mapping, require… more »

WP 2022-01 Real Choices and Hypothetical Choices

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Forthcoming, Handbook of Choice Modeling

AUTHORS: Glenn W. Harrison

ABSTRACT: There is evidence that behavior changes when individuals make choices over hypothetical scenarios and stakes rather than real scenarios and stakes. What is the nature of this evidence, and how significant is it for different types of inferences? In particular,… more »

WP 2021-07 Economics is converging with sociology but not with psychology

Posted On August 4, 2021
Categories Working Papers, WP 2021

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AUTHOR: Don Ross

ABSTRACT: The rise of behavioral economics since the 1980s led to richer mutual influence between economic and psychological theory and experimentation. However, as behavioral economics has become increasingly integrated into the main stream in economics, and as psychology has remained damagingly methodologically conservative, this convergence has recently… more »