WP 2015-05 Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations: Experimental Evidence

Download Paper

Published in 2017 in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Volume 52, Issue 2.

ABSTRACT: We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes’ rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally… more »

WP 2014-09 Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

Download Paper

Published in 2015 in Economic Letters, Volume 127.

ABSTRACT: We consider the elicitation of subjective belief distributions over continuous events using scoring rules with incentives. The theoretical literature suggests that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We use this theoretical prediction to test… more »

WP 2014-08 First evidence of comorbidty of problem gambling and other psychiatric problems in a representative urban sample of South Africa

Go To Journal Site

Published in 2015 in Journal of Gambling Studies, Volume 31.

ABSTRACT: Aims: We investigate the extent to which problem gambling in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is comorbid with depression, anxiety and substance abuse. Setting: Data are from the 2010… more »

WP 2014-07 Risk and Time Preferences of Entrepreneurs: Evidence from a Danish Field Experiment

Download Paper

Published in 2014 in Theory & Decision, Volume 77, Issue 3.

ABSTRACT: To understand how small business entrepreneurs respond to government policy one has to know their risk and time preferences. Are they risk averse, or have high discount rates, such that they are hard to motivate? We have conducted a set… more »

WP 2013-13 Cautionary notes on the use of field experiments to address policy issues

Download Paper

Published in 2014 in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 30, Issue 4.

ABSTRACT: Field experiments are popular again in policy circles. There are various types of field experiments, with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different policy questions. There is also a lot of needless hype about what field experiments can do.… more »

WP 2013-10 Impact Evaluation and Welfare Evaluation

Download Paper

Published in 2014 in The European Journal of Development Research, Volume 26, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: The expression “impact evaluation” means different things to different people, but to most economists now it means the use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or “quasi-experiments.” I want to focus on that side of the research and… more »

WP 2013-08 Subjective Beliefs and Statistical Forecasts of Financial Risks: The Chief Risk Officer Project

Posted On August 15, 2013
Categories Working Papers, WP 2013 Tags

Download Paper

Published in 2014 as a book chapter in Contemporary Challenges in Risk Management: published by Palgrave Macmillan UK, and edited by Torben Juul Andersen & Stanley Mayes.

ABSTRACT: Information about financial risks comes from many sources. We formally consider how one can elicit and use information from two important sources when… more »

WP 2013-07 Estimating the Subjective Risks of Driving Simulator Accidents

Download Paper

Published in 2014 in Accident Analysis and Prevention, Volume 62.

ABSTRACT. We examine the subjective risks of driving behavior using a controlled virtual reality experiment. Use of a driving simulator allows us to observe choices over risky alternatives that are presented to the individual in a naturalistic manner, with many of… more »

WP 2013-04 The Marginal Cost of Risk, Risk Measures, and Capital Allocation

Download Paper

Published in 2016 in Management Science, Volume 62, Issue 5.

ABSTRACT. Financial institutions define their marginal cost of risk on the basis of the gradients of arbitrarily chosen risk measures. We reverse this approach by calculating the marginal cost for a profit-maximizing firm with risk-averse counterparties, and then identifying the risk… more »

WP 2013-02 Dual Criteria Decisions

Download Paper

Published in 2014 in Journal of Economic Psychology, Volume 41.

ABSTRACT. The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar… more »