WP 2017_04 The Methodologies of Behavioral Econometrics

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Forthcoming – Philosophy and Interdisciplinary Social Science: A Dialogue

ABSTRACT: Behavioral econometrics is one part of a methodological trinity that includes theory, data collection and econometrics. Sometimes, on a good methodological day, there are few demands on the econometrician and the data can just be described and summarized, or elementary statistical… more »

WP 2017-02 Disordered Gambling Prevalence: Methodological Innovations in a General Danish Population Survey

*Note that this paper was previously listed as WP 2016-02 Gambling Problems in the General Danish Population: Survey Evidence, and then was inadvertently reposted as 2017-02. Both links should direct you to this page, and should there be any newer versions, we will update this page.

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Forthcoming – Journal of Gambling… more »

WP 2017-01 The Empirical Adequacy of Cumulative Prospect Theory and its Implications for Normative Assessment

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Published in 2017 in Journal of Economic Methodology, Volume 24, Number 2.

ABSTRACT: Much behavioral welfare economics assumes that expected utility theory (EUT) does not accurately describe most human choice under risk. A substantial literature instead evaluates welfare consequences by taking cumulative prospect theory (CPT) as the natural default alternative, at… more »

WP 2016-10 Fire Sales and House Prices: Evidence from Estate Sales due to Sudden Death

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Published in 2017 in Management Science, Volume 63, Number 1.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates when forced sales of real estate turn into fire sales by using a natural experiment which allows us to separate supply and demand effects: Forced sales result from sudden death of house owners and are thus unrelated… more »

WP 2016_08 The Psychology of Human Risk Preferences and Vulnerability to Scare-Mongers: Experimental Economic Tools for Hypothesis Formulation and Testing

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Published in 2016 in Journal of Cognition and Culture, Volume 16, Issue 5.

ABSTRACT: The Internet and social media have opened niches for political exploitation of human dispositions to hyper-alarmed states that amplify perceived threats relative to their objective probabilities of occurrence. Researchers should aim to observe the dynamic “ramping up”… more »

WP 2016_06 Varieties of Paternalism and the Heterogeneity of Utility Structures

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Forthcoming – Journal of Economic Methodology

ABSTRACT: A principal source of interest in behavioral economics has been its advertised contributions to policies aimed at ‘nudging’ people away from allegedly natural but self-defeating behavior toward patterns of response thought more likely to improve their welfare. This has occasioned controversies among economists and… more »

WP 2016_04 Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory: A Reconsideration

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Forthcoming – Economic Letters

ABSTRACT: Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in statements of this calibration puzzle is that small-stakes risk aversion is observed over all levels of wealth, or… more »

WP 2016_03 Old-Age Provision: Past, Present, Future

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Published in 2016 in European Actuarial Journal, Volume 6, Issue 2.

ABSTRACT: This is a summary of the main topics and findings from the Swiss Risk and Insurance Forum 2015. That event gathered experts from academia, insurance industry, regulatory bodies, and consulting companies to discuss the past and current developments and… more »

WP 2015-13 The Methodologies of Behavioral Insurance: Introduction to the Special Issue

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Published in 2016 in The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Volume 83, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: The generic insurance product involves an agent giving up a certain amount of money ex ante some risky event in the expectation of being given some money in the future if something unfortunate occurs. It is immediate… more »

WP 2015-10 Evaluating the Expected Welfare Gain from Insurance

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Published in 2016 in The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Volume 83, Issue 1.

ABSTRACT: Economic theory tells us how to evaluate the expected welfare gain from insurance products on offer to individuals. If we know the risk preferences of the individual, and subjective beliefs about loss contingencies and likelihood of payout,… more »