WP 2012-08 Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

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Published in 2015 in Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, Volume 50.

ABSTRACT. A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes Rule correctly when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from… more »

WP 2011-05 Avoiding the Curves: Direct Elicitation of Time Preferences

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Published in 2012 in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Volume 44, Issue 3.

ABSTRACT. We propose and test a new method for eliciting curvature-controlled discount rates that are invariant to the form of the utility function. The advantage of this method is that individual discount rates can be obtained without knowledge… more »

WP 2010-06 Estimating Subjective Probabilities

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Published in 2014 in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Volume 48, Issue 3.

ABSTRACT. Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover… more »