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WP 2012-10 Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

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Published in 2017 in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 134.

ABSTRACT: Subjective beliefs are elicited routinely in economics experiments. However, such elicitation often suffers from two possible disadvantages. First, beliefs are recovered in the form of a summary statistic, usually the mean, of the underlying latent distribution. Second, recovered beliefs… more »

WP 2012-09 Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

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Published in 2014 in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 101.

ABSTRACT. We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Harrison, Martínez-Correa and Swarthout [2013] found that the binary lottery procedure works robustly to induce risk neutrality when subjects are given… more »

WP 2012-05 Reduction of Compound Lotteries with Objective Probabilities: Theory and Evidence

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Published in 2015 in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 119.

ABSTRACT. The reduction of compound lotteries (ROCL) has assumed a central role in the evaluation of behavior towards risk and uncertainty. We present experimental evidence on its validity in the domain of objective probabilities. Our experiment explicitly recognizes the… more »

WP 2012-02 Inducing Risk Neutral Preferences with Binary Lotteries: A Reconsideration

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Published in 2013 in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 94.

ABSTRACT. We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior. We strip the experimental implementation down to bare bones, taking care to avoid any potentially confounding assumptions about behavior having to be made. In particular, our evaluation… more »