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WP 2014-09 Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

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Published in 2015 in Economic Letters, Volume 127.

ABSTRACT: We consider the elicitation of subjective belief distributions over continuous events using scoring rules with incentives. The theoretical literature suggests that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We use this theoretical prediction to test… more »