Risk Perception and Subjective Beliefs
This workshop will examine theory and evidence on where subjective risk perceptions come from, how they response to “news,” and how they are normatively used in policy settings. Topics will include the theory of subjective beliefs (are we eliciting subjective probabilities, a la Savage, or subjective probability distributions?), experimental procedures for eliciting beliefs (comparisons of alternative scoring rule procedures and betting environments), prediction markets (what do they actually predict, in terms of beliefs?), Bayesian and non‐Bayesian updating (how are subjective priors updated as news arrives?), and policy use (how do the risk perceptions of experts versus differ from those of nonexperts?).