WP 2014

WP 2014-09 Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions with Binary Lotteries

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Published in 2015 in Economic Letters, Volume 127.

ABSTRACT: We consider the elicitation of subjective belief distributions over continuous events using scoring rules with incentives. The theoretical literature suggests that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We use this theoretical prediction to test… more »

WP 2014-08 First evidence of comorbidty of problem gambling and other psychiatric problems in a representative urban sample of South Africa

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Published in 2015 in Journal of Gambling Studies, Volume 31.

ABSTRACT: Aims: We investigate the extent to which problem gambling in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is comorbid with depression, anxiety and substance abuse. Setting: Data are from the 2010… more »

WP 2014-07 Risk and Time Preferences of Entrepreneurs: Evidence from a Danish Field Experiment

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Published in 2014 in Theory & Decision, Volume 77, Issue 3.

ABSTRACT: To understand how small business entrepreneurs respond to government policy one has to know their risk and time preferences. Are they risk averse, or have high discount rates, such that they are hard to motivate? We have conducted a set… more »

WP 2014-05 Hypothetical Surveys or Incentivized Scoring Rules for Eliciting Subjective Belief Distributions?

Posted On February 26, 2014
Categories Working Papers, WP 2014

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ABSTRACT. Is there a difference between the elicited subjective belief distribution obtained from hypothetical surveys or from incentivized scoring rules? If so, are they correlated? What is the interaction between responses to unverifiable events and comparable, verifiable events when one interacts the use of incentives? We address these questions with controlled experiments.… more »

WP 2014-04 Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment

Posted On February 26, 2014
Categories Working Papers, WP 2014

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ABSTRACT: Longitudinal experiments allow one to evaluate the temporal stability of latent preferences, but raise concerns about sample selection and attrition that may confound inferences about temporal stability. We evaluate the hypothesis of temporal stability in risk preferences using a remarkable data set that combines socio-demographic information from the Danish Civil Registry… more »

WP 2014-03 Stationary Bubbles

Posted On February 6, 2014
Categories Working Papers, WP 2014

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ABSTRACT. Tests of asset price bubbles typically focus on the stationarity properties of the dividend yield. Evidence of nonstationarity in the dividend yield is viewed as proof of bubbles, while stationarity is interpreted as absence of bubbles. For economies with arbitrary pricing kernels but stationary risk-free rates, I show that there exist… more »

WP 2014-02 Portfolio Constraints, Differences in Beliefs and Bubbles

Posted On January 28, 2014
Categories Working Papers, WP 2014

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ABSTRACT. I propose an arbitrage-based theory of rational bubbles in economies with general portfolio constraints and differences in beliefs. Trading restrictions and speculation due to asymmetric information and heterogeneous beliefs do not cause bubbles. Low interest rates are again needed for bubbles to exist, as in economies with symmetric information and agents… more »